Monday, January 28, 2008

The Even Thinner Blue Line

If you wonder why it's hard to find a policeman these days, then a leaked memo from Michael Fuller, the Chief Constable of Kent, may explain one part of the problem.

Fuller, has told Jacqui Smith, the Home Secretary, that Kent is struggling to cope with "migration surges" that are leading to spiralling crime levels.

In a leaked memo, dated Oct 22 last year, Michael Fuller, the Chief Constable of Kent, warned of a "negative impact on performance" if the Government fails to provide enough cash to match the influx of migrants.

Mr Fuller wrote: "As the gateway to Europe, Kent has a unique geographical status which places additional strain on limited resources."

He estimates that 78 per cent of the population growth in the county is due to migration. This has contributed to a rise of more than a third in violent crimes over five years to about 7,800 incidents last year.

Mr Fuller estimated the total additional cost to the force to be £34 million over the past three years, but claimed that increases in funding from the Home Office have failed to keep pace.

He also warns of the soaring cost of translation services, and predicts that he will need 500 extra constables.

His sentiments echo those of Julie Spence, the Chief Constable of Cambridgeshire, who last year begged the Government for more money.


Anonymous said...

Who said immigration from Eastern Europe would not be much and that a valuable contribution to our economy would be made? Kent's top cop exposes the problem from his point of view but what about problems in housing, schools and hospitals? I have noticed that the 'Big Issue' is being sold in Thanet by foreigners; so even the bottom end of our British society, our down and outs are now being out-competed in the pressure on homeless charities.

Cllr David Green said...

True to form, Mr Moores never fails to emphasise any problem perceived to be related to immigration, migration, asylum or foreigners in general. For someone who claims to have spent much of his time abroad, I would have thought he would know better. Certainly, the increasingly "political" Mr Fuller should. "Leaked memo", who is he trying to kid?
Lets look rationally at this particular issue. The figures for kent show that in 2005/6 6787 foreign nationals were arrested, and in 2006/7, 7407 were. Thats an increase of 620. 620 too many of course, but set in a background of 145,402 total arrests in 2006/7, thats 0.5%, hardly set to break our local police force.
Then we have the assumption that this is due to migration. The figures include all foreigners and all arrests, the vast majority of which will be tourists, students, people visiting on business. These exceed the migrant population by a factor 100.
Very sloppy story Simon, shame on you.

DrMoores said...

Are you saying that the Chief Constable of Kent is making it up then and like the Chief Constable of Cambridgeshire, or even Thames Valley migration is not a problem placing an inordinate strain on already overstretched police resources?

Back to New Labour "la la land" I suppose, where the trains run on time, Health and Education are up to expectation and the Home Secretary can walk home after dark?

DrMoores said...

Perhaps we should ask Kent police about the problems they are experiencing in Margate and Cliftonville and whether this bears any local statistical relationship with the Chief Constable's concerns?

Perhaps you would like to and report back David?

Cllr David Green said...

Lets stick to Kent shall we? I'm saying that the statistics show that the Chief Constable may be over playing his case.
Your cheap jibe about Labour la la land is just that. In general, our trains do run on time, I use them, how often do you? Certainly Health and Education are receiving record investment and are performing better than ever. You may think, not fast enough, but dont deny the facts.
With regard to Cliftonville and Central Margate. Yes there is a problem, largely caused by unscrupulous private landlords maximising profit at the expence of vulnerable both migrants and home grown. That's why the Labour Government is investing heavily in the area. As part of the ruling group at TDC you would be well advise in making sure the money is well spent, and not frittered away on Christmas lighting and unsustainable Threatre's

Anonymous said...

And a pointless fence in Broadstairs winged about by a load of middle class herberts with too much time on their hands. Thanet has lots of problems to deal with like drugs, vandalism, violent crime and abandonment of the elderly when they need help or medical care. So its a bit high, so get a life, do some voluntary work in the hospice or something, but please do shut up.

DrMoores said...

Funnily enough I do use the trains and you'l find my experiences regularly commented-upon here! I estimated a one in three chance of getting to Victoria and back without incident but there has been a recent improvement as I can see from the reports tha the train company sends me!

As for "La La Land" come off it David, people aren't really as stupid as the government thinks they are. It's hard to find anything, including the government that is fit for purpose, regardless of billions wasted on consultants and policy mistakes!

Anonymous said...

If I could quote County Councillor Chris Wells:

"Kent students have achieved the best ever GCSE results in the School Achievement and Attainment Tables published today by the Department for Children, Schools and Families (DCSF).
In 2007 65% of pupils achieved five A*-C passes in all subjects, a rise of 3.6% from 2006 There was also improvement in the proportion of pupils achieving five A*-C GCSE grades including English and mathematics which at 48.5%, is 1.7% higher than in 2006. 1.8% above the national average.
Student performance at age 16 has improved year on year since 1995 and has exceeded the national average for the last ten years. The 2007 figure exceeds the tough target agreed with the DCSF in 2005. KCC Cabinet Member for Children, Families and Educational Skills Chris Wells said: “I warmly welcome this steady and continual rise in GCSE achievement. For the past 12 years there has been year on year improvement."

That's the true picture of education in Kent. I could easily find similar for the NHS. You are starting to believe your own propaganda.

A Common Man said...

12.46, those who might be whingeing about a fence tend also to be those who volunteer for Aged Concern, Demelza House and Thanet Pilgrim's Hospice so keep your abusive class posturing to your-self please; itis just so dated.

If something is not right, as some clearly feel about a fence in Culmers Land Broadstairs, at least they might be trying to resolve the matter and keep 'Thanet beautiful' for all to enjoy , regardless of age, class, gender, race, religion or sexual orientation.

Karl Marx said...

What rubbish! Thanet beautiful! You're just a bunch of Tory nimbys using that as an excuse because the value of your houses will fall. Why don't you try being honest for a change.
PS How could you have time to do any charity work when you're constantly writing pointless letters and whining to the press etc?

anon again! said...

anon again!

Most of this was said 10 years ago when the problems started. It doesn't take a clever Policeman to work the details out. They've known since then, so why make a fuss NOW!

steve said...

Mr Moores,

Shame on you for playing the migration card. I would have thought someone with your academic background would know better.

I point you to your later post in regards to older drivers. As with our driving population, the UK has an ageing population, and a birth rate (1.74) below the replacement population level of 2.1 children per women (Source: EU). Migrants from all over the world provide us with an influx to help keep our population and economy growing. Without them, pensioners all over Thanet would be queueing up in the job centre with the rest of us.

DrMoores said...

I think Steve probably needs a better education than he demonstrates here.

Firstly and a fact, Police forces are concerned with the problems and costs they are facing in the story referred to here.

Secondly. The UK needs a proportion of unskilled migrants but it desparately needs skilled workers for the 21st century and the evidence shows that we are now suffering from a chronic imbalance and a resultant strain on our health, education and police services to name but three.

Karl Marx said...

Mr Green 11/34 well done getting rid of this grovelling Cllr this, Cllr that kiss my a-- title rubbish. You get my vote.

chris wells said...

The assumption behind David's comments seems to be that the Chief Constable is getting political and not telling the truth. That is a worrying assertion, and deserves proper consideration. David makes certain claims about the way the figures are presented, and perhaps could ask his questions directly of the Chief Constable's office? In my experience when challenged, they are quite willing and able to reconsider.

That being said, even if Mr Fuller was getting political, there are others there before him, one Sir Ian Blair comes to mind, who has taken the opposite approach and made huge numbers of contacts and listening arrangements for migration and other ethnic groups - prior to the Demenzies affair that is.

Perhaps, like Trevor Philips before him, Mr Fullers colour allows him to say some things that are unpalatable truth which others of us could not for accusation of racism.

For the gentleman who so liberally quoted me, I presume sarcastically, about exam results, I have always been very clear about the position. We can debate if exams are easier most days of the year. It is, however, churlish to undermine the achievements of our young people on results publication days. Even if you believe exams are easier, the young people can only pass those exams we put in front of them; it is our responsibility to maintain standards as best we can.

I can assert that I have not been asked to comment on McAlevels etc, as has Mr Brown, but would love the chance.......

steve said...

Mr Moores

Unfortunately, I am a product of the grammar school system in Kent. I'm thinking about furthering my education. I'm looking at the US, west coast. Could you suggest anywhere I could study?

In regards to your 2nd point, I challenge you to show the evidence that shows the chronic imbalance in our services due to migrants.

As a general note which you can try and answer - has the health service, police, schools etc etc - ever said they had too many resources, too much money? In my opinion they've never had enough, but in living memory have they ever had that need satisfied? Is that the migrants fault? Does that mean our immigration policy has always been wrong?

Anonymous said...

We would not have any sort of problem if the courts handed out proper sentances, and the Government built more prisons, if that was needed.

If you punish offenders, then a message goes out. The harder you hit these criminals, the more of a deterant it becomes.

I do not condone the barbaric sentances carried out in some countries, but it does send out a message that crimb does not pay!

DrMoores said...

Dear Mr Steve. Your rather strained writing style does rather give the game away and so I recommend that you 'return whence you came.'

As for facts and figures, I have more than enough, as last year, Microsoft commissioned me to write a report which touched on our skils crisis. However, all the information you require is publicly and politically available and so I might suggest that you trawl the CBI or even Gordon Brown's speeches.

As for immigration, it appears that just about everyone, other than you, appears to concede that we are in a crisis - take Slough as one small example - and I, for one, would not be prepared to challenge the reported views of the Chief Constable of Kent.

Good bye "Steve"

Cllr David Green said...

Kent Police have issued a statement on Monday to clarify the chief constable's position.

It quoted Mr Fuller as saying: "Far from 'struggling to cope' with increased crime, in the last year Kent Police has actually achieved a 10 per cent reduction in all crime, including violent crime. The number of criminals we have brought to justice is up by more than five per cent.

"At the same time, public confidence in the service we provide continues to rise.

"The data I presented to the Home Office did not and could not directly link crime trends to increased migration.

"The issue for us is not the impact of migration on crime levels, but the significant increase in workload and demand on our resources that increased population brings.

Mr Fuller said 78 per cent of the population growth is accounted for by migration, which he said has contributed to a rise of more than a third in violent crimes over five years to about 7,800 incidents last year.

So it would appear that migrants per head contribute less to crime than the indigenous population.

DrMoores said...

Mr Green (if that's what you prefer these days?) I think I'llleave the final comment to Mark Twin!

"In the space of one hundred and seventy-six years the Lower Mississippi has shortened itself two hundred and forty-two miles. That is an average of a trifle over one mile and a third per year. Therefore, any calm person, who is not blind or idiotic, can see that in the Old Oolitic Silurian Period, just a million years ago next November, the Lower Mississippi River was upwards of one million three hundred thousand miles long, and stuck out over the Gulf of Mexico like a fishing-rod. And by the same token any person can see that seven hundred and forty-two years from now the Lower Mississippi will be only a mile and three-quarters long, and Cairo and New Orleans will have joined their streets together, and be plodding comfortably along under a single mayor and a mutual board of aldermen. There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact."

Cllr David Green said...

I dont understand the first remark? I always use the same ID.
(an exception is anon 2.21pm, a slip of the typing fingers!).
Is the quote your way of saying "Why let a few facts get in the way of a good rant?"
By the way, when I try to comment on your site it attempts to put no less than 6 cookies on my computer. What are they all for?

DrMoores said...

Or even Mark Twain and not his "Twin" - cold fingers!

DrMoores said...

We know where you live Mr Green!

Anonymous said...


DrMoores said...

Actually, quips aside, it's probably Google doing what it does best, tracking every entry to add to the great "Googlecloud" in the Sky.

Which reminds me, I have to go off an do some flying!

Anonymous said...

Dr Moores makes a very good point regarding the need for skilled labour. Since it seems the kind of skilled people we can churn out these days are only qualified to flip burgers. As for all the lies, damned lies and statistics. I think the average Joe on the street is not convinced by all the positive benefits that uncontrolled immigration has brought us. Are they just cynical? To me it seems the average Nu Labour supporter must own a deeply tinted pair of spectacles and have their iPod playing lalalala at 100dB. Britain has become a magnet to the undesirables of Eastern Europe. Tens of thousands of people from Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia. The benefits system in their home countries are much lower than what is on offer here. The same can be said for their health systems. Added to this are the hundreds of thousands of economic migrants from outside the EU. This isn't going to end well I'm afraid. If you think crime is bad now give it five years and see what it's like then.

steve said...

Mr Moores.

You've rumbled me. "Steve" is not my real name....

Its Steven.

I'm not sure who you think I am, but you've nothing to be suspicious about. I just happen to have recently moved to the area, and have different views on the issues you have raised. I agree there are some issues with immigration - no idea of how many migrants, where from, how many on benefits for example. How are we to understand any dynamics of cross border migration without tracking movements? Our Government/councils are severely lacking in that dept.

However, agreeing there are some problems is one thing - blaming immigration as the root cause of health, education and policing problems without factual support is something entirely different.

Even though you are not prepared to challenge the Chief, Kent Police seem willing.

I'll take up your suggestion of looking up your skills shortage report.

DrMoores said...

You won't find it in circulation, it was a private client report "Productivity & Technology in the Early 21st Century" where I was asked to come up with a formula to describe the process of change: (See further below.)

However, drawing on EU and UK published figures which you can research if you wish:

"There are three distinct challenges, among many, facing modern economies where technology is involved. The first involves the political leaders, who need to
take a greater interest in the subject and its importance in a world increasingly shaped by competitive advantage at a national level. Europe and in particular, the UK, the nation that invented globalisation, is suffering from a skills deficit,
falling behind other countries and less able to compete in the global knowledge economy today, let alone tomorrow"

• Fd now becomes the force of drag resisting the productivity benefits of new technology

• ρ is the density of IT environment; i.e. legacy systems, interoperability and complexity

• v is the velocity of change, improvements and upgrades cycle relative to the IT environment

• A is the reference area; i.e. the footprint and size of the enterprise

• Cd is the drag coefficient (a dimensionless constant that describes the IT readiness of the business in terms of acceptance, management capability and workforce skills

steve said...

The company this report was commissioned for has combatted any potential skills shortage by offshoring to India. Its awash with a higly educated, English speaking population equipped to make up MSoft and many other multi national companies work force.

I would argue this is either at the expense of skilled workers at home, or in addition to, but not because of a shortage at home.

DrMoores said...

You really need to go away and do some proper research. Yes offshoring among large companies banks and so on is rife and yes India, as an example turns-out orders of magnitude more software engineers a year than Europe.

Start with the EU's "Lisbon Agenda" and also look at the CBI and government's own figures among others. You might also wish to cross-reference recent speeches by Ed Balls the education Minister.

However, you really need to base your argument on a solid foundation. Europe and the UK need to compete but lack the skills necesary to do so. Simultaneously China and India are skilling-up their populations at a particular mass-entry but have yet to achieve the lead that will over time, have a serious nd detrimental impact onteh Europea economy. Hence the Lisbon Agenda.

steve said...

simon. cash is king

however awash europe is with skilled workers, if its cheaper elsewhere and it can be performed in a cheaper location it will be.

Providing shareholders with roe comes before all else.

An 80% saving on renumeration is too much for any company to turn their nose up, regardless of what is does to the "home" job market.

The good news is that costs will increase faster in an emerging market, so the trade off between cost and service will be harder to argue in the coming decades.

However, from any basic clerical work upwards, expect it to go to India/China.

the Lisbon agenda - I am familiar with it. All political puff and no substanc. Typical EU/Government bs. " we will be kind to the environment, create a knowledge economy and invest in education". Bully for them. doesn't talk about subsidising french farmers, or Germanys social security expenditure - costs the emerging economies are not saddled with.

steve said...

I have to sign off now. I have an economy to boost